Is it a Good Time to Invest in Tesla Stock?
The current market conditions for Tesla stock seem to be fluctuating. On January 31st, 2023, the stock price increased by 3.94% and went from $166.66 to $173.22 [1]. However, over the past month (21 trading days), the stock has declined by roughly 19% [2]. These market conditions can impact the decision to invest in Tesla stock.
Company performance: Tesla recently announced its Q3 2022 earnings, and as of November 22nd, 2022, Elon Musk’s net worth had fallen by $100 billion in 2022 [3].
Stock price trends: Over the past 10 days, the price of Tesla stock has risen in 7 of them, and has gone up by 31.74% in the last two weeks [1]. Despite recent declines, some analysts believe that recent stock drops might make this one of the best times to buy Tesla stock ever [4].
Analyst predictions: Some analysts suggest that now seems to be a good time to begin buying, or adding to one’s position in Tesla stock, even if the company grows earnings by only 30% [5]. Other analysts note that the ride for shareholders seems to be smoothing out as the company meets quarter after quarter of profitability [6].
What is Causing Tesla Stock to Drop?
Recent events or developments that may have influenced the stock price:
Tesla’s stock price has been impacted by multiple events and developments in recent months, with the most recent being the acceleration of the sell-off in the bear market [7].
The stock has dropped 6% in a single day and wiped out its gains for the year [8]. The late-month dip in Tesla’s stock price may have been made worse by a Bloomberg report that stated production at the company’s California factory had been disrupted [9].
On another occasion, CEO Elon Musk tried to attribute the decline in stock price to macroeconomic factors, but critics pointed to his acquisition of Twitter as a distraction for the company [10].
Analysis of potential factors such as competition, production delays, or economic conditions:
The bear market has been a significant factor in the decline of Tesla’s stock price, with the stock having dropped more than 25% since early November 2021 [11].
Market volatility and rising bond yields may have also played a role, as the stock declined by about 1.7% in a single day, compared to the Nasdaq-100, which fell by almost 3% due to a decline in U.S. consumer confidence [12].
Some analysts and investors may also be concerned about the impact of competition on Tesla’s stock price, as well as production delays, which could disrupt the company’s ability to meet its production goals.
Michael Burry, who famously bet against the housing market in the 2008 financial crisis, revealed he was short Tesla in December, calling its stock price ridiculous, which may also have influenced the decline in stock price [13].
What Do Analysts Say About Tesla Stock?
Recent analyst reports and predictions for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock vary. According to Stock Analysis [14], the average 12-month stock price forecast is $212.5, which predicts an increase of 27.51%. On average, analysts rate Tesla stock as a buy with a consensus of “Buy.”
However, MarketBeats, [15], states that the consensus rating for Tesla stock is “Hold” based on 6 sell ratings, 11 hold ratings, and 20 buy ratings for TSLA. The average twelve-month price prediction for Tesla is $208.97 with a high price target of $430.33 and a low price target of $33.33.
[16] states that based on 31 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for Tesla in the last 3 months, the average price target is $192.75 with a high forecast of $300.00 and a low forecast of $85.00.
Analyst opinions and ratings can have a significant impact on a stock’s price as they can influence the buying and selling decisions of investors and traders. A positive rating or high target price set by an analyst can attract new buyers to the stock, which can drive up its price.
On the other hand, a negative rating or low target price can lead to selling pressure and a decline in the stock’s price.
It is important to note that analyst ratings and predictions are not guarantees of future performance and that many other factors can influence a stock’s price.
It is crucial for investors to conduct their own research and consider multiple sources before making any investment decisions.
Are Tesla Stocks a Buy?
Based on recent news articles and reports, Tesla (TSLA) is currently the largest automaker in the world by value, with a market capitalization of around $900 billion. [16][17].
The stock has been performing well, with the average 12-month stock price forecast for Tesla at $212.5, predicting an increase of 27.51%. This has led to a mean consensus of “outperform” among 47 analysts, with an average target price of $194.39. [18][19].
However, despite its strong performance, investing in Tesla stock also carries potential risks. The company’s growth plans, including an estimated ramp-up in capital expenditures to $4.5 to $6 billion per year, may result in increased costs and affect the company’s financial stability. [20].
Additionally, some analysts view the stock as being overvalued and high growth, making it more sensitive to market declines. [21].
On the other hand, Tesla’s recent execution and growth plans also offer potential rewards for investors. The company has a large market capitalization, a history of profitability, and a number of growth initiatives that could drive future growth and profitability. The company has a lot of “optionality”, as noted by Motley Fool, and its recent performance has been impressive. [22].
Ultimately, whether or not Tesla stock is a good buy depends on the individual investor’s investment strategy and risk tolerance. Some investors may be comfortable taking on the potential risks associated with a high-growth, high-multiple stock, while others may prefer to invest in more established, stable companies.
It is important for each investor to carefully consider their own financial goals, risk tolerance, and investment strategy before making any investment decisions. A financial advisor can also provide valuable guidance in this regard.
Tesla's Strengths, Weaknesses, Threats, and Opportunities
Strengths:
Tesla is a company that is well known for its innovative and cutting-edge technology. One of its key strengths is its electric vehicles (EVs) and the charging infrastructure that supports them. Tesla’s EVs have been praised for their stylish design, long driving range, and advanced features such as Autopilot.
This technology has given Tesla a strong competitive advantage in the automotive industry, as it provides customers with a new and exciting driving experience.
Another key strength of Tesla is its focus on sustainability. The company’s commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and transitioning to clean energy has helped it to attract a dedicated customer base and gain a positive reputation among environmentally conscious consumers.
Finally, Tesla’s unique business model, which includes direct sales and a focus on online marketing, has allowed the company to differentiate itself from traditional automakers.
This model has helped Tesla to reduce costs and increase efficiency, leading to increased profits and growth.
Weakness:
Despite its many strengths, Tesla also has a number of weaknesses that may impact its future performance. One of the main challenges the company faces is production and supply chain constraints.
As demand for Tesla’s products has increased, the company has struggled to meet this demand, leading to production delays and supply chain disruptions. This could limit the company’s ability to grow and expand, and negatively impact its financial performance.
Another weakness of Tesla is its dependence on government incentives and subsidies. These incentives have been instrumental in helping Tesla to establish itself as a leader in the EV market, but they may become less available in the future as governments focus on reducing spending.
In addition, Tesla’s focus on EVs and renewable energy also exposes it to fluctuations in commodity prices, such as lithium and cobalt, which are key components in the production of batteries.
This could lead to increased costs and decreased profits for the company.
Threats:
One of the main external threats facing Tesla is increased competition in the EV market. Traditional automakers such as Volkswagen, General Motors, and Toyota are investing heavily in EVs and the charging infrastructure needed to support them.
This increased competition could lead to price pressure and decreased market share for Tesla.
Another external threat to Tesla is changes in economic conditions. As the global economy slows down, consumers may be less likely to purchase expensive products such as EVs. This could lead to decreased demand and lower profits for the company.
Finally, political and regulatory risks could also impact Tesla’s future performance. Changes to regulations and government policies, such as import tariffs or changes to incentives for EVs, could negatively impact the company’s bottom line.
Opportunities:
Despite the challenges and threats facing the company, Tesla also has a number of opportunities for growth and expansion. One of the main opportunities for the company is continued growth in the EV market.
As more consumers become aware of the benefits of EVs and the charging infrastructure continues to expand, demand for Tesla’s products is likely to continue to increase.
Another opportunity for Tesla is expanding into new markets, such as China and India, where the demand for EVs is growing rapidly. Tesla could take advantage of these markets to increase its global reach and reach new customers.
Finally, Tesla could also explore new business opportunities in the clean energy sector. The company has already made significant investments in solar panels and energy storage systems, and these products could provide additional revenue streams in the future.
Is Tesla a Safe Long-Term Stock?
Tesla has been a publicly traded company for close to 12 years and is expected to mark 20 years of public trading in 2030 [23]. Despite some short-term fluctuations, the overall trend for Tesla’s stock has been upward, with some predicting continued growth in the future [24].
However, it’s important to keep in mind that no stock goes up forever in a straight line, so there may be ups and downs along the way [25].
Tesla’s revenue in 2021 was $53.8 billion and its market capitalization was $900 billion [26]. The company also saw an increase in free cash flow, with $2.79 billion in 2020 compared to $1.08 billion in 2019 [27].
On the other hand, Tesla was holding over $5 billion in long-term debt and lease obligations at the end of 2021 [28]. The company also made $163.6 million in interest payments last quarter, resulting in a record-breaking GAAP loss of $717.6 million [29].
Investing in Tesla stock carries potential rewards, with some third-party forecasting services estimating a 5-year forecast of $564.24 to $1,292.063 a share [30].
However, there are also potential risks to consider, such as the large amount of debt and interest payments that the company is holding. Additionally, a recent study found that Tesla’s vehicles rank among the worst in terms of long-term reliability and build quality [31].
Some analysts also believe that the company’s stock is overvalued [32]. Ultimately, the decision to invest in Tesla stock should be based on a careful consideration of these factors, as well as a long-term view of the company’s financial health and growth prospects.
Who is Tesla's Main Competitor?
Tesla, a leader in the electric vehicle (EV) and renewable energy industries, faces competition from several companies, both established and new entrants. Some of Tesla’s main competitors include Ford, General Motors (GM), Volkswagen, NIO, BYD, SGMW, Lucid, Honda Motors, and various companies from China and other countries. [33,34,35,36].
Tesla has a significant lead over its competitors in terms of market share, with the company accounting for over 18% of the global EV market in 2020. Close behind Tesla is the VW Group, with just over 11% of the market, followed by BYD (9%), GM (7.6%), Stellantis (6%), and Hyundai (5.7%). [37].
Tesla’s brand recognition, innovation, and growth potential have made the company a leader in the EV industry. Tesla’s CEO, Elon Musk, has built Tesla into one of the most powerful brands in the world, which gives the company a huge lead over its competitors. However, as the EV sector is expected to heat up, competition is likely to increase. [38].
Lucid Motors, for instance, is one of the most interesting Tesla competitors, with its CEO Peter Rawlinson being a former VP of Engineering at Tesla. The 2022 Lucid Air is the only EV currently on the market to beat Tesla on range, with an EPA-estimated range of up to 520 miles if you buy the Dream Edition. [39].
NIO is currently Tesla’s biggest competitor in China, with the company selling over 450,000 EVs in 2021. [40, 41].
The rise in competition in the EV sector is expected to increase, with Bloomberg New Energy forecasting that EVs will account for 10% of the total global passenger vehicle market by 2025 and this figure may reach 58% by 2040.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Tesla continues to dominate the electric vehicle and renewable energy industries, but faces competition from established automakers and new market entrants. Despite intense competition, Tesla has demonstrated strong performance and market share. While competition could impact Tesla’s future success, its innovative products and sustainable mission position the company well for continued growth.
In terms of investing in Tesla stock, it’s important to consider the company’s strengths and challenges, as well as the overall market conditions. While investing in any stock carries risk, those interested in investing in Tesla should consider seeking advice from a financial professional and doing their own research.
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References
[1] https://stockinvest.us/stock/TSLA
[3] https://www.investopedia.com/tesla-stock-tsla-5105321
[4] https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-might-be-the-best-time-to-buy-tesla-stock-ever-51584710482
[5] https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/01/06/is-now-the-time-to-go-all-in-on-tesla-stock/
[6] https://money.usnews.com/investing/stock-market-news/articles/tesla-inc-tsla-stock
[7] https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/01/11/3-reasons-tesla-stock-keeps-falling/
[8] https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/23/investing/tesla-shares-bear-market/index.html
[9] https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/02/why-tesla-stock-fell-149-in-february/
[10] https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/20/elon-musk-tries-to-explain-why-tesla-shares-are-tanking.html
[11] https://seekingalpha.com/article/4485281-tesla-stock-dropping-what-should-investors-consider
[14] https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla/forecast/
[15] https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/TSLA/price-target/
[16] https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/tsla/forecast
[18] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-good-stock-buy-2022-223316809.html
[19] https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla/forecast/
[20] https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/102815/biggest-risks-investing-tesla-stock.asp
[22] https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/09/is-tesla-stock-a-buy/
James Lim
SFA Founder
Member of Australian Investors Association (AIA)
The University of Queensland Speaker
